Chinese dragon may fume as much but won’t spit fire on Taiwan

India

oi-Jagdish N Singh

Militarily,
Taiwan
is
powerful
enough
to
defend
itself.
It
has
about
2.3
million
military
reservists.
It
has
some
logistical
advantages
against
any
potential
invasion.

In
the
wake
of
United
States
House
of
Representatives
Speaker
Nany
Pelosi’s
visit
to
Taiwan
this
Wednesday,
the
Chinese
People’s
Liberation
Army’s
Eastern
Theatre
Command
has
begun
live-firing
drills
in
the
regions
surrounding
Taiwan,
a
self-ruled
nation
the
communist
country
considers
its
own
part.
Will
it
lead
to
a
full-fledged
Chinese
invasion
of
the
democratic
island
nation
to
annex
the
latter?

Observers
say
Beijing
cannot
dare
to
take
on
Taipei
militarily.
Speaker
Pelosi
has
been
highly
critical
of
communist
China-its
policies
in
Tibet,
Xinjiang
and
Hong
Kong,
in
particular.
Beijing
might
be
apprehending
the
Pelosi
visit
would
encourage
the
self-ruled
island
nation
to
declare
its
independence
from
China.

In
the
wake
of
Pelosi’s
visit
,
China
has
hence
fired
multiple
missiles
towards
waters
near
north-eastern
and
southwestern
Taiwan.
It
has
sent
more
than
20
fighter
jets
across
the
median
line
in
the
Taiwan
Strait.
China
has
deployed
two
of
its
most
powerful
warships-Type
55
destroyers-off
the
central
and
south-eastern
coast
of
the
island.
These
drills
have
involved
some
of
China’s
newest
and
most
sophisticated
weaponry,
including
J-20
stealth
fighters
and
DF-17
hypersonic
missiles.

China,
Pak
can
play
‘friends’
but
India
has
larger
plans
to
expose
them

Beijing
has
taken
such
steps
just
to
warn
Taiwan
against
taking
any
move
towards
its
independence.
The
communist
leadership
in
the
country
needs
to
convey
to
its
domestic
constituency
that
it
is
committed
to
protect
China’s
territorial
integrity.

The
pattern
of
communist
China’s
foreign
policy
behaviour
suggests
Beijing
would
not
let
the
Pelosi
visit
escalate
into
a
military
clash
with
Taipei.
In
1997,
then
US
Speaker
Newt
Gingrich
visited
the
island
nation.
This
did
not
lead
to
any
fatal
fiction
in
the
Taiwan
Strait.

China
seems
to
be
aware
that
launching
a
war
against
the
island
nation
might
not
be
rewarding
at
all.
This
would
adversely
affect
its
growing
economic
ties
with
Taiwan.
Last
year,
Taiwan’s
exports
to
China
reached
USD188.9
billion.
China
today
is
Taiwan’s
largest
export
partner.
Over
3
million
Taiwanese
live
and
work
in
mainland
China.

Militarily,
Taiwan
is
powerful
enough
to
defend
itself.
It
has
approximately
88,000
active-duty
personnel.
It
has
about
2.3
million
military
reservists.
It
has
some
logistical
advantages
against
any
potential
invasion.
It
does
not
have
easy
landing
sites
for
any
invaders.
Taiwan’s
eastern
coast
is
mountainous
and
rocky.

Besides,
Washington
may
come
to
Taipei’s
rescue
if
Beijing
invades
it.
The
US
Taiwan
Relations
Act,
requires
Washington
to
provide
Taipei
with
the
means
to
defend
itself.
If
the
US
decides
to
assist
in
the
defence
of
Taiwan,
the
US
Air
Force
could
take
off
from
the
Okinawa
and
reach
Taiwan
in
less
than
an
hour.
During
her
short
stay
in
Taipei,
Speaker
Pelosi
in
an
address
reiterated
that
US
“will
not
abandon
our
commitment
to
Taiwan.”

China
using
my
Taiwan
visit
as
‘an
excuse’
for
military
drills:
Nancy
Pelosi

The
United
States
is
unlikely
to
allow
China
to
control
Taiwan
and
affect
ship
traffic
in
the
South
China
Sea.
Besides,
in
case
of
any
war
by
China
on
Taiwan,
Japan
may
not
sit
idle.
Tokyo
views
Taipei
crucial
to
peace
and
development
in
the
region.

The
observers
add
New
Delhi
has
done
well
to
maintain
a
studied
silence
on
the
current
Taiwan
crisis.
New
Delhi
has
ceased
to
reference
the
“One-China”
policy
since
2010.
The
dominant
thinking
in
India
today
seems
to
be
that
there
is
no
need
to
reiterate
the
One-China
policy.
China
is
not
being
considerate
about
India’s
territorial
sensitivities.
Beijing
continues
to
claim
Arunachal
Pradesh
as
a
part
of
the
Chinese
territory.
It
has
renamed
some
of
the
Arunachal
towns
in
its
own
language.
It
has
been
issuing
“stapled
visas”
to
Indian
citizens
who
are
residents
of
Jammu
and
Kashmir
and
Arunachal
Pradesh.

(Jagdish
N.
Singh
is
a
senior
journalist
based
in
New
Delhi.
He
is
also
Senior
Distinguished
Fellow
at
the
Gatestone
Institute,
New
York)

Disclaimer:
The
opinions
expressed
in
this
article
are
the
personal
opinions
of
the
author.
The
facts
and
opinions
appearing
in
the
article
do
not
reflect
the
views
of
OneIndia
and
OneIndia
does
not
assume
any
responsibility
or
liability
for
the
same.