Michigan’s trajectory, Georgia Tech’s struggles, Syracuse’s plan: Recruiting mailbag

Welcome to this week’s recruiting mailbag and thank you for all of your questions.

Let’s dive right in, shall we?

Would you share an intro of why you follow recruiting and what you think will be exciting to follow over the next one-two years? Thanks and welcome! — Bryan M.

Thanks, Bryan!

I figured this was a great way to kick off our mailbag and say hello to those of you who might not be as familiar with my work.

After covering Clemson for five years, I joined my pal Ari Wasserman in June to cover college football recruiting full-time at The Athletic, and I couldn’t be more excited about it. The simple answer to your question about why I follow recruiting is because it’s the most fun part of our sport, in my opinion. The competition, the antics, the overall zaniness — it’s total chaos! Where else can you get kids jumping out of airplanes to announce their commitments or two SEC coaches delivering possibly the greatest offseason feud in college football history? It’s wild, and I love it.

On a more serious note, though, I also like to follow recruiting because, to me, it’s the No. 1 indicator of a given team’s success or lack thereof. Is your team dominating? Look at the way it’s recruiting. Is your team struggling? Again, look at the way it’s recruiting. In the words of Georgia coach Kirby Smart: “No coaching is going to out-coach players. … If you don’t recruit, guys, you’ve got no chance.”

Looking ahead to the next year or two, I think it’ll be exciting to cover the impact that conference realignment and name, image and likeness have on recruiting. College football is changing more than ever, and schools have to update their approaches if they want to keep up. From a football perspective, I can’t wait to see what the Class of 2023 quarterbacks do once they enroll at their respective schools. This is a really strong class with a lot of big names.

Which school has abundant opportunity in its territory but is failing to capitalize on the most prized recruits? — Themanebro

This is a great question and could go in a number of different directions. But the first school that comes to mind is Georgia Tech.

I understand that it’s not easy for the Yellow Jackets to compete with the likes of Georgia, Clemson and Auburn, all of which are a short drive from Atlanta. But Atlanta has as much talent as any area in the country, and Georgia Tech hasn’t been able to capitalize in its own backyard. In the last five recruiting classes, Georgia Tech has signed one (!) high school prospect who has ranked in the top 25 in the state of Georgia in the 247Sports Composite. That one player was four-star running back Jahmyr Gibbs, who transferred to Alabama this past offseason.

In the Class of 2023, the Yellow Jackets have eight commits from the state of Georgia, but the highest-ranked of that group checks in at No. 60 in the state and No. 651 overall (edge Zachariah Keith).

Geoff Collins’ ability — or inability — to turn that around will be something to monitor.

How true is the perception that the NCAA is powerless to stop recruiting violations? — Will Z.

I don’t think we know the answer to this yet, and we probably won’t know until the NCAA actually investigates boosters and issues a punishment. What we do know, however, is that the NCAA has never been weaker as a governing body, thanks to the NCAA vs. Alston case last summer. In the words of our Andy Staples, the Supreme Court’s 9-0 decision against the NCAA was an “unapologetic, unrelenting ass-kicking.”

Schools know this, too.

Programs don’t fear the NCAA like they once did, and public perception has shifted in favor of athletes receiving compensation.

The NCAA put out “guidance” to schools in May as a way to remind those involved with NIL collectives that they are subject to the same rules as boosters, in that they are not permitted to contact recruits.

But in that same update, the NCAA essentially conceded that it can’t look into everything.

“While the NCAA may pursue the most outrageous violations that were clearly contrary to the interim policy adopted last summer, our focus is on the future,” board chair and Georgia president Jere Morehead said in a statement.

Shortly after the news came out, a sports attorney told The Athletic’s Nicole Auerbach and Stewart Mandel that he thought it was “adorable” that NCAA brass was “acting as if they’re going to crack down on anything.”

What’s next? We won’t know until something happens. But confidence in the NCAA has never been lower, and many coaches think a total restructure of the sport is coming.

Which team could be most vulnerable to losing recruits due to in-season performance? Auburn comes to mind with the way boosters have been angling to fire their coach. Do you agree, and who else? — Frank T.

Auburn is a good one for sure. Recruits are looking for stability at a program, and it’s hard to imagine a situation in which the will-he-be-fired-or-not drama of Bryan Harsin’s offseason doesn’t hurt the Tigers on the recruiting trail.

Other schools that come to mind based on performance on the field are North Carolina, Texas, UCLA and Nebraska. Arch Manning’s commitment to the Longhorns should help Texas hang onto its prospects who want to play with him, but the on-field results have to be better for a team that went 5-7 in 2021. The same goes for a UNC program that has signed three consecutive top-15 classes but regressed in 2021 with a 6-7 record. At UCLA, Chip Kelly might not be in trouble — he signed a four-year extension in the offseason — but recruits might lose faith in his rebuild if the Bruins fail to capitalize on last year’s semi-breakthrough. Nebraska coach Scott Frost is likely again on the hot seat in 2022, which could certainly lead to decommitments if the Huskers struggle again.

What is Syracuse’s path to recruiting competence barring a sudden increase in talent in western/central New York? — Ben K.

OK, I’m not going to lie: This question made me laugh. (I’m sorry!)

Syracuse is a program that is really hurt by its geography — there simply aren’t a lot of high-caliber FBS players in upstate New York. And this isn’t the late 1980s and ’90s when the Orange were routinely winning nine or 10 games a year.

Dino Babers has to focus on a few areas — the DMV and Florida are two that make sense — and hope to consistently out-evaluate schools that are swimming in the same recruiting waters. And finding the right quarterback to obviously very important. In 2018, when Syracuse won 10 games, Eric Dungey ranked second in the ACC in total yardage with 278.6 per game.

It’s probably difficult for many fans to accept, but this is one of the most challenging jobs in the Power 5.

How are questions about realignment affecting recruiting for everyone but Clemson in the ACC? I can see there being three tiers of schools. The “Relax, We’ll Be Fine” category with UNC, Virginia, Miami and Florida State); the “Burning Up the Phones” group with Virginia Tech, Louisville, NC State and a few others; and the “It Was Fun While It Lasted” group with Wake Forest and Boston College. — Tom W.

As you know, ACC schools are in a precarious situation in that they know they’re about to be lapped by the SEC and Big Ten in terms of television revenue, but are stuck in a grant of rights agreement that binds them to the league through 2036. The league has several schools, though, that would be desirable to either the SEC or Big Ten as we move closer to two super conferences. I like where you’re headed with these tiers, so let’s dig into that.

Tier 1: Clemson, UNC, Virginia, Miami, Florida State

Clemson might have a small alumni base, but the Tigers have proven to be one the top brands in the country in college football. They would be a natural fit in the SEC in terms of geography, academics and football. The same would go for Florida State if the Seminoles can return to the national dominance we’ve seen from them in the past.

North Carolina and Virginia aren’t as dominant in football, but the Tar Heels hold arguably the most power in the conference because of their brand and status as an AAU university. Virginia is also an AAU university, which is important to the Big Ten. It stands to reason the Big Ten wouldn’t hesitate to get the state of North Carolina into its TV market, as well as capitalize on the Jordan brand.

Tier 2: NC State, Virginia Tech, Pitt, Georgia Tech, Duke

Clemson and North Carolina both have reasons to protect NC State and could perhaps use their leverage to ensure the Wolfpack do not get left out. If it even came to that. NC State makes sense on its own in the SEC, due to its (sporadic) football success and gameday atmosphere. (The tailgates there are highly underrated.) Like the Big Ten, the SEC also isn’t in North Carolina — a fruitful TV market thanks to Charlotte and the Research Triangle.

Virginia has leverage in protecting Virginia Tech, and Pitt, the reigning ACC champion, is another AAU university that would make sense in the Big Ten. Georgia Tech has struggled in football as of late, but still has a recent history of success. As for Duke, while we all know the Blue Devils offer very little to a conference from a football standpoint, their basketball brand is undeniable.

Tier 3: Louisville, Boston College, Wake Forest, Syracuse

All of these schools are tough sells for either the Big Ten or SEC and unfortunately, would run the risk of getting left behind. Wake Forest, coming off an ACC Atlantic Division title, would be the most desirable, in my opinion, based on a combination of academics, facilities and recent success. There’s an argument to be made they, too, could be in Tier 2.

How might you change Michigan’s recruiting trajectory? — William B.

It all starts with stability in the program. It’s difficult to recruit when your head coach flirted with an NFL job in the offseason and you lost both coordinators. That being said, there’s no reason this program should not sign a top-15 (at worst) class coming off a Big Ten title.

Landing an elite quarterback is obviously a priority. Missing out on both CJ Carr (2024 five-star headed to Notre Dame) and Dante Moore (2023 five-star headed to Oregon) hurt. Do the Wolverines go hard after a 2023 prospect who is committed elsewhere? Or do they put their eggs in the basket of 2024 prospect Jadyn Davis, do everything they can to land him and then build around him for a strong 2024 class? These next few months will be crucial.

But you are right to be a bit concerned. Michigan needs to recruit better if it hopes the 2021 season wasn’t a fluke.

What out-of-the-box recruiting ideas do you want coaches and staffs to implement? — Quinn B.

As a lover of the outdoors, if it were up to me, I’d make every program take their June official visitors on a hiking or camping trip so recruits could see what coaches are really like behind the scenes when things get dicey. In the same way that I learned a lot about my white water rafting guide last week when I flipped out of our boat on the opening rapid, these recruits would learn quite a bit about these coaches in the woods with no cell phone service.

(Photo of Geoff Collins: Brett Davis / USA Today)