BJP inching towards its goal in Jammu and Kashmir

India

oi-R C Ganjoo

The
current
developing
political
exercises
clearly
indicate
a
surprise
permutation
combination
to
come
up
in
which
BJP
probably
achieves
its
goal
of
forming
a
government
of
its
own
or
in
arrangement
with
like-minded
party
leaders.

Jammu
and
Kashmir
is
eager
to
witness
assembly
elections
in
the
union
territory
set-up,
after
the
abrogation
of
Article
370
and
35A
on
August
5,
2019.
However,
dates
for
the
elections
have
not
been
announced
yet.

The
Jammu
and
Kashmir
Legislative
Assembly
was
dissolved
on
November
21,
2018,
followed
by
the
abrogation
of
special
status
on
August
5,
2019.
Subsequently,
the
delimitation
commission,
Order
No.
2,
dated
5th
May
2022
came
into
force
and
earmarked
43
seats
to
the
Jammu
region
and
47
to
the
Kashmir
region
–
increasing
the
strength
of
Union
territory’s
assembly
to
90
members
from
the
previous
83.
Earlier,
Jammu
had
37
seats,
and
Kashmir
had
46.

Considerably,
out
of
the
seven
new
seats,
six
have
been
allotted
to
Jammu
and
one
to
Kashmir.
And
for
the
first
time,
the
delimitation
commission
reserved
nine
seats
for
the
Scheduled
Tribes
(ST).
It
also
recommended
members
be
nominated
from
Kashmiri
migrant
communities,
displaced
at
the
peak
of
militancy
in
the
1990s.

Will
BJP
reap
benefits
of
development
in
North-eastern
states
in
Assembly
elections
next
year?

But
political
parties
from
the
region,
particularly
from
the
Kashmir
valley,
have
remained
bitterly
opposed
to
the
scrapping
of
the
special
status,
and
want
statehood
to
be
restored
before
the
delimitation
and
elections.
But
the
demand
has
been
rejected
by
the
Centre.
In
June
2018,
when
the
BJP
withdrew
its
support
from
the
People’s
Democratic
Party
(PDP)
of
the
Mehbooba
Mufti
government,
at
that
time
the
parties’ strengths
were
–
PDP
(28),
BJP
(25),
JKNC
(15),
INC
(12),
JKPC
(2),
CPI(M)
(1),
JKPDF
(1),
IND
(3),
NOM
(2).
Governor’s
rule
was
subsequently
imposed
in
Jammu
and
Kashmir
on
December
20,
2018.

Immediately
after
the
withdrawal
of
special
status
to
Jammu
and
Kashmir,
the
People’s
Alliance
for
Gupkar
Declaration
(PAGD)
came
into
existence
against
NDA.
Jammu
and
Kashmir
National
Conference,
Jammu
and
Kashmir
People’s
Democratic
Party,
Communist
Party
of
India
(Marxist)
and
the
Jammu
and
Kashmir
Awami
National
Conference
came
under
the
banner
of
PAGD
to
challenge
BJP
in
elections.

Whereas,
other
smaller
political
parties
like
Jammu
and
Kashmir
Apni
Party,
Jammu
and
Kashmir
People’s
Conference,
Jammu
and
Kashmir
People’s
Movement,
Ikkjutt
Jammu,
Jammu
and
Kashmir
Workers
Party,
Jammu
and
Kashmir
People’s
Democratic
Front
have
little
role
but
their
vote
bank,
wherever
they
have
the
presence,
can
give
a
fillip
to
the
winning
candidate.

As
far
as
the
Congress
party
is
concerned,
it
gradually
eroded
its
presence
particularly
in
Jammu,
after
having
an
alliance
with
the
National
Conference
in
November
1986
against
the
wishes
of
their
respective
party
cadre.
Secondly,
the
inner
bickering
in
Congress
remained
the
main
reason
to
damage
its
stature,
which
never
got
repaired
till
now.
As
result
of
that,
the
workers
either
joined
other
parties
or
left
Congress.

According
to
R.
S.
Chib,
former
minister
and
Congress
leader,
“there
are
bleak
chances
of
Congress
to
even
retain
its
seats.
The
organizational
structure
is
in
disarray.” Speculations
were
rife
that
senior
Congress
leader
Gulam
Nabi
Azad
will
float
a
political
front
to
revive
the
party
cadre
under
a
different
banner
for
which
he
held
hectic
meetings
with
Congress
leaders
in
Jammu
and
Kashmir.
But,
suddenly
he
withdrew
himself
from
this
venture
for
the
reasons
best
known
to
him.

Politically,
BJP’s
status
seems
enhanced
for
two
reasons.
Firstly,
PAGD,
Congress
and
other
small
political
parties
are
in
search
of
political
agenda.
The
PAGD
headed
by
Dr
Farooq
Abdullah
is
committed
to
restoring
special
status
to
the
state
come
what
may.
Dr
Abdullah
has
been
on
an
election
campaign
trying
hard
to
woo
the
people
in
Muslim
belts
in
the
Jammu
region.
Secondly,
the
delimitation
commission
recommendations
are
surely
going
to
benefit
BJP
in
Hindu
and
tribal
regions.
BJP
is
also
committed
to
giving
political
reservations
to
the
Pahari
community
before
the
elections
are
announced.
They
have
the
influence
in
12
assembly
seats
which
would
add
further
vote
bank
in
favour
of
BJP,
if
the
reservation
is
granted.

‘Confident’
regional
players
in
J&K
demand
Assembly
elections

The
current
developing
political
exercises
clearly
indicate
a
surprise
permutation
combination
to
come
up
in
which
BJP
probably
achieves
its
goal
of
forming
a
government
of
its
own
or
in
arrangement
with
like-minded
party
leaders.

Finally,
it
goes
without
saying
that
BJP
has
a
fair
chance
to
capture
30-32
seats
in
Jammu,
while
Congress
can
get
6-7.
In
the
milieu,
Aam
Adami
Party,
instead
of
opening
its
account
will
damage
the
Congress
vote
bank
in
Jammu.
In
Kashmir
valley,
PAGD
will
have
the
upper
hand
but
it
will
be
difficult
to
come
to
power.
Peoples
Conference
of
Sajjad
Lone
and
Apani
Party
of
Altaf
Bukhari
branded
in
the
valley
as
B-team
of
BJP
will
serve
the
interest
of
BJP
if
need
be.
While
the
proxy
candidates
too
will
have
their
own
axe
to
grind.