Plano, Texas, and the politics and demographics behind the racist attack on Indian-Americans

WASHINGTON: During a concert in Arlington, Texas, earlier this week, the celebrated singer Lady Gaga caused a stir by telling fans that she hopes the Republican-governed state will “go blue” (turn Democrat) during the midterm elections. Texas, she said, already has a “purple heart” and she hoped it would turn blue in the upcoming Congressional election in November.
While some fans cheered her implicit support for Bete O’Rourke, the Democratic challenger for the governorship against incumbent Republican Greg Abbott, some others walked out of the concert in a state that has been a Republican redoubt for nearly half a century. Jimmy Carter was the last Democrat to win the state in the Presidential election in 1976 before Ronald Reagan turned it around in 1980, and it was remained Republican since then.
But thanks in part to demographic changes, the contests have gotten closer in recent years, particularly in Congressional and local elections centered in smaller constituencies. The city of Plano — which is really a wealthy suburb of Dallas and was scene of the racist attack on four Indian-American women by a self-professed Mexican-American on Wednesday — is an example of this. Plano comes under Texas’ 3rd Congressional district, and over the years, the Congressional races have become tighter, with Democratic challengers edging closer to Republicans who have had a run of the place for decades.

Texas’ 3rd Congressional district was represented by Republican Congressman Sam Johnson for 13 terms (26 years). But what used to be a near 80-20 margin win for Johnson for many years (he won some terms uncontested) gradually became a 60-40 district towards the end of his career as demographic changes took effect, with a big surge in Asian and non-white hispanic population. When Johnson retired in 2018, his successor Nicholas Van Taylor won the seat by a 54-44 margin and repeated it by a similar margin in 2020 — much closer but still a comfortable victory.
Over in Houston, which covers much of Texas’ 22nd. Congressional district, Indian-American Democrat Sri Preston Kulkarni has twice failed to dislodge Republican losing 46-51 in 2018 and 44-51 in 2020. A striking aspect of Kulkarni’s campaign was his outreach in many foreign languages (13), including Hindi, Punjabi, Mandarin, Vietnamese, Igbo (Nigerian); he himself, a former US foreign service officer, speaks six languages.
Things have also gotten tighter in the Presidential election. While George Bush, John McCain, and Mitt Romney each won Texas with around 60-70 percent of votes, Trump won the state 55-41 in 2016 and a narrow 50-49 in 2020. Verily it is said that if Texas turns blue, it will be all over for Republicans because the state has 38 electoral votes (likely to go up to 40 in 2024), the most after California (55).

Driving this change are cities such as Plano, which have seen a large influx of foreign-born population, including citizens and voters. Even as far back as 2000, census figures show Plano had a significant foreign-born population: 17% from China, 9% from India, and 4% from Vietnam with a total of 30% of foreign-born residents came from these three countries. That year, 22% of Plano’s foreign-born originated in Mexico.
Typically, immigrants tend to vote Democratic, although around 20-25 per cent, particularly the wealthy, lean Republican once they have established themselves in America. But in the 2020 presidential election, Trump won more than 35 percent of the Latino vote in Texas. Surprisingly, he had a higher share of support in among Latino voters without a college degree than those with one: According to a Pew Research survey, Biden won 69 percent of college-degreed Latino voters, compared to 30 percent for Trump, a 39 percentage-point advantage. But Biden’s advantage over Trump narrowed with Hispanics with some college or less, 55 percent to 41 percent, a 14-point advantage.

But Plano itself has bucked the Republican trend, rapidly turning Democratic. In 2016, Trump won the city by roughly 50-45 margin. Republicans typically polled 60 per cent or more in previous elections. In 2018, Beto O’Rourke became the first Democrat to win the city in the 21st century, although he lost the statewide election. In 2020, Joe Biden won the city 53-44.
It is not fully clear what triggered Esmeralda Upton’s racist outburst. But while her claim or rant (“You fucking Indians are everywhere!”) maybe a trifle exaggerated, it is no secret that Indians in America are more educated and wealthier than any other community, and nowhere is it more apparent than in Texas going by anecdotal accounts. They are the subject of admiration and appreciation for the large part, but is conceivable they are also subject of envy and resentment — particularly from other communities with less educational and academic chops. Plano, by the way, is home to headquarters of companies such as FedEx, JC Penney, Frito-Lay (A Pepsi subsidiary) and Capital One Finance, not to speak of a large number of hospital and medical centers. You can imagine the Plano-old desi presence.