Taliban mark one year in power: How ‘victory for Pakistan’ narrative is unravelling

NEW DELHI: On August 15, 2021, the Taliban seized the Afghan capital of Kabul in a rapid takeover that took the world by surprise. Its march to power was swift and easy.
Bearded Taliban fighters, some hoisting rifles or the white banners of their movement, staged small victory parades on foot, bicycles and motorcycles in the streets of the capital to mark a year in power.
However, the country today is grappling with poverty, drought and malnutrition as the economic downturn has driven millions into poverty and hunger.

Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan was seen as a huge diplomatic coup for Pakistan and a setback for the US-led forces.
With moderates within Taliban being sidelined by the “pro-Pakistan” hardliners in the new administration – all seemed to play out very well for Islamabad.
But a year down the line, things seems to have gone somewhat awry for Pakistan.

The Taliban regime in Kabul hasn’t exactly been the de facto vassal that Islamabad expected. Terrorist violence at home has seen an increase, Pakistan is grappling with another refugee influx from Afghanistan, and its efforts to win recognition for the Taliban regime have come to a nought.
The ‘victory for Pakistan’ rhetoric seems to have unravelled fast. Here is how:
Pakistan sees an increase in terrorism incidents
Terrorism related violence and fatalities in Pakistan, which was already on the rise since 2020, has increased further in the last one year.
According to the think tank South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), overall terrorism-linked fatalities in Pakistan in 2021 increased to 663 from 506 in 2020, registering a 31.02 per cent rise. 2022 has already seen 230 fatalities.
There were 267 incidents of killings in 2021, as compared to 193 in 2020. This is a clear reversal from the downward trend observed between 2014-19. Pakistan also recorded 110 incidents of explosion in 2021 as against 81 in 2020.

Experts see a direct link to the surge in violence within Pakistan to events in Afghanistan over the past one year.
Resurgence of the TTP
The Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), an umbrella organization of Islamist armed militant groups, has a stated goal- of overthrowing the Pakistani government through a terrorist campaign. It is blamed for most terrorist incidents in the country.
The Doha deal of February 2020 between the US and the Taliban paved the way for a Taliban dominance in Afghanistan and also emboldened the TTP, given the close ties between the two outfits. Its activities gained further momentum after the Taliban took over Kabul in August 2021.
In recent years, it has gained in strength by reabsorbing various splinter factions into itself. It is now focused on isolating the tribal regions of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa along the Afghan border from Pakistan to create a sharia-ruled state.
Islamabad has attempted to strike peace with the TTP, but the efforts so far has been unsuccessful.

Figures of violent incidents from the restive Balochistan province too will not bring much comfort in Islamabad. Overall fatalities in Balochistan increased from 215 in 2020 to 311 in 2021, up by 44.65 per cent.
Tension on disputed Pak-Afghan border
Afghanistan has a historic border dispute with Pakistan over acceptance of the Durand Line. Far from resolution, the frictions have surfaced again after Islamabad’s efforts to fence the border.
The 2,670 km long line drawn in 1893 to demarcate British India from Afghanistan has not been accepted by successive regimes in Kabul, arguing that it divides tribal communities, specially the Pashtuns, living on both sides of the border.

When Pakistan was created in 1947 and inherited the Durand Line, Afghanistan questioned the legality of the Durand Line Agreement as it had been signed with the British Crown and ought to have lapsed at independence.
The Taliban stopped the Pakistani military from erecting barbed-wire fences and outposts in Nimroz and Nangarhar provinces earlier this year, and even destroyed erected fences.
Influx of Afghan refugees, slowing of repatriation
Given Pakistan’s current security, economic, political, and social concerns, there is very little appetite to absorb additional displaced populations.
But the Taliban coming to power in Kabul triggered another large wave of Afghan refugees headed south to Pakistan.
Between January 2021 and February 2022, UNHCR documented 117,547 new arrivals from Afghanistan in Pakistan, with a significant peak of 35,289 persons in August 2021, according to a report by the European Union Agency for Asylum.
As of January 2022, there were approximately 3 million Afghans living in Pakistan- less than half of them with documentation.
On the other hand, repatriation of Afghans registered in Pakistan slowed down to a trickle in 2021.

Failure to win recognition for Taliban regime
Despite Pakistan’s best efforts, no country, nor the UN has officially recognised the Taliban regime in Kabul.
Islamabad, while advocating recognition to the world, has adopted an obfuscating stand itself, that it “will recognise the Taliban regime in Afghanistan when there is a consensus, particularly of regional countries, on the issue.”

Moderates within the Taliban, like Mullah Baradar, were sidelined in the Taliban administration
Several countries have engaged in dialogues with the Taliban, either directly or through back-channels; but most have been clear in their position of not giving recognition to the hardline Islamists.