Exit Polls 2026: BJP Gains in Bengal, DMK to Retain Tamil Nadu, Assam for NDA
The 2026 Assembly election exit polls have offered the first glimpse into voter sentiment across key states, with projections from agencies like Today’s Chanakya and Axis My India indicating a mix of continuity, surprises, and potential political shifts. A mixed bag of predictions.
According to live updates reported by The NCR Times, polling agency Today’s Chanakya released its projections for major states including West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, and Assam after voting concluded across five regions involving nearly 17 crore voters. 17 crore voters, five states.
In West Bengal, the exit poll suggests a major setback for the ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC). Today’s Chanakya projects the TMC-led alliance to secure around 100 seats (±11) with roughly 38% vote share, indicating a sharp decline from its previous dominance. At the same time, other reports and poll trends hint at a strong surge for the BJP, suggesting the possibility of a major political shift in the state. TMC decline, BJP surge in Bengal.
However, a notable development came from Axis My India, which chose not to release exit poll data for West Bengal. The agency cited an unusual lack of voter response, making it difficult to gather reliable and representative data. This decision has added uncertainty to Bengal’s predictions, making it one of the most closely watched contests. Axis My India skips Bengal data.
In Tamil Nadu, Today’s Chanakya forecasts a return to power for the DMK-led alliance. The alliance is projected to win around 125 seats (±11) in the 234-member Assembly with a vote share close to 39%. Interestingly, actor Vijay’s newly launched party TVK is expected to emerge as a strong challenger, with projections suggesting it could secure a significant number of seats and reshape the state’s political landscape. Other surveys, including those by Axis My India, also indicate a strong performance by the DMK, though some projections differ on the extent of TVK’s rise. DMK to retain Tamil Nadu, TVK emerges as challenger.
In Assam, the projections are far more decisive. Today’s Chanakya predicts a clear victory for the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), estimating around 102 seats (±9) with approximately 50% vote share. Multiple exit polls support this trend, pointing toward a comfortable return to power for the ruling alliance under Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma. Assam: clear NDA victory.
Across the broader election landscape, exit polls from different agencies suggest varied outcomes. While Assam appears headed for political continuity, Tamil Nadu may see a mix of stability and new political forces, and West Bengal remains highly unpredictable due to conflicting projections and missing data. Varied outcomes across states.
It is important to note that exit polls are only indicative and not always accurate. Past elections have shown significant differences between projections and final results. The official results for all five states—including West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala, and Puducherry—are scheduled to be announced on May 4, 2026. Exit polls not always accurate.
In summary, the 2026 exit polls point to a potentially transformative election cycle. While the BJP appears set for a strong performance in Assam and possibly gains in Bengal, the DMK is likely to retain Tamil Nadu, albeit with emerging competition. The final outcome, however, will only be confirmed once the votes are counted, leaving room for surprises in what has already become a closely followed electoral contest. Transformative election cycle ahead. Final results on May 4. Stay tuned for surprises.
